Forward-dated catalysts across the 58-mineral complex — export-control expirations, DPA Title III triggers, USGS list refreshes, corporate prints, and active supply disruptions. T-minus is from Wed, 03 Jun 2026 UTC.
Commerce Department Section 232 investigation into NdFeB and SmCo magnet imports launched Q4 2025. Final report + tariff recommendation due 270 days post-launch — landing window mid-2026.
DLA Strategic Materials FY26 cobalt rounds acquisition (RFP DLA-AMP-CO-26-001 equivalent) closes mid-year. ~$80M nominal; ex-CN/DRC sourcing requirement narrows the qualified bidder field.
Sources: regulatory_events, corporate_events, mineral_supply_disruptions, intelligence_signals. T-minus computed against 2026-06-03 UTC.
Commerce Department Section 232 investigation into NdFeB and SmCo magnet imports launched Q4 2025. Final report + tariff recommendation due 270 days post-launch — landing window mid-2026.
Commerce Department Section 232 uranium investigation reporting deadline. Russian enriched uranium ban (Public Law 118-62, eff. Aug 11 2024) has waivers expiring; potential expansion to natural uranium / yellowcake imports.
DoD Manufacturing Capability Expansion graphite anode award expected Q3 FY26. Likely recipients: Westwater Resources (WWR), Novonix (NVX.AX), Syrah Resources (SYR.AX) — first US-sited anode-grade graphite operations.
DRC's Ministry of Mines export-quota regime for cobalt hydroxide (eff. Feb 2025) reaches its 18-month review. Quota tightening would force CMOC/Glencore inventory destocking; relaxation reverses the Q4 2025 price spike.
China's MOFCOM antimony / antimony oxide export-license regime (effective Sep 15 2024) faces its 24-month formal review. Expiry without renewal would release ~50% of global supply; renewal in current form sustains the scarcity premium. Watch MOFCOM filings + customs export volume…
Follow-on DPA Title III award expected for sintered NdFeB magnet capacity. Prior awards: MP Materials ($45M, 2022), Noveon Magnetics ($28M, 2023). Next tranche likely $60-120M targeting heavy-REE (Dy/Tb) substitution chemistry.
EU Critical Raw Materials Act Strategic Projects designation — third tranche expected Q3 2026. Designated projects unlock streamlined permitting (24-month target) and EIB / IPCEI co-financing.
G7 + EU Critical Minerals Marketplace mechanism — Phase 1 price-discovery and off-take coordination platform launch. Offers price-floor/ceiling for designated ex-China supply, modeled on uranium spot/conversion markets.
EXIM Bank's China and Transformational Exports Program (CTEP) battery-minerals financing tranche disbursement window. ~$2B authorized, ~$700M committed, balance available through 2026.
Following the November 2025 US-China trade detente, China suspended its Ga/Ge export-license requirements through November 27, 2026. Re-imposition is a step-function up for AXTI and the InP/CPO supply chain; permanent removal compresses the scarcity premium 40-60%.
MOFCOM's natural and synthetic graphite export-license regime (eff. Dec 1 2023) reaches its 36-month review. China controls ~65% of anode-grade graphite. Battery cathode/anode complex is exposed; LIT and BATT ETFs are the cleanest proxies.
Indonesia's 2020 nickel ore export ban (Jokowi → Prabowo continuity) faces its annual ministerial review. Loosening would re-flood global Class-2 nickel; tightening compresses HPAL margin further.
DLA Strategic Materials FY27 tungsten ammonium paratungstate (APT) acquisition window opens Q1 FY27 per the FY24 NDS Annual Materials Plan. Single-tender awards typically $50-150M; prime-contract opportunity for US/allied APT producers.
Australia's 10% Critical Minerals Production Tax Incentive (CMPTI) reaches its first eligible-credit reporting period. ~$7B nominal benefit pool through 2040; first cohort (Pilbara, Wesfarmers, Lynas, etc.) reports in.
Energy Act of 2020 mandates triennial refresh of the USGS critical-minerals list. Next refresh due 2027 (prior: 2022, 2025). Additions/removals flow directly into DPA Title III eligibility, DLA stockpile mandates, and 30D investment-tax-credit reach.